5.3 Who Votes? Voter Turnout in the US

Announcements:

Quiz Today over Expansion of Voting Rights and Models of Voting Behavior (10pts)

READING: 162-189 in Edwards

Unit Five Identification Terms

Today's Essential Question: How do different demographics and structural barriers affect voter turnout?

Learning Standards:

MPA-3.C: Explain the roles that individual choice and state laws play in voter turnout in elections.

MPA-3.C.1: In addition to the impact that demographics and political efficacy can have on voter
choice and turnout, structural barriers and type of election also affect voter turnout in the U.S.,
as represented by:

• State voter registration laws
• Procedures on how, when, and where to vote
• Mid-term (congressional) or general presidential elections

MPA-3.C.2: Demographic characteristics and political efficacy or engagement are used to predict

the likelihood of whether an individual will vote.

MPA-3.C.3: Factors influencing voter choice include:

• Party identification and ideological orientation
• Candidate characteristics
• Contemporary political issues
• Religious beliefs or affiliation, gender, race and ethnicity, and other demographic characteristics

Voter Turnout in the US

Questions to Consider:
1. Who is more likely (demographics) to engage in political participation? How does that affect who is elected and government policies?
2. What is voter turnout in midterm elections and primary elections compared to general presidential elections? Who votes and what impact does that have on the candidates/winners?
3. What institutional/structural barriers are there to voting?


One of the strongest predictors of voter turnout is political efficacy, or the belief that you can make a difference politically. However, there are a number of other factors that influence the likelihood of voting. 

Task #1: Read the articles below and answer the following questions:

Article: What Affects Voter Turnout Rates
Article: Census Data Finds Who Votes, and Who Doesn't
Article: Voter Turnout in the 2016 Election

1. Explain two factors that influence overall voter turnout rates.
2. Describe how each of the following demographic features affects voter turnout:

• Age
• Race/Ethnicity
• Gender
• Socioeconomic Status (SES)

3. How do the above differences influence government policy and campaign strategy?

Presidential Elections vs. Midterm Elections:

How does the difference in voter turnout rate between midterm elections and presidential elections affect who gets elected to Congress? Think about who is most likely voting in midterm elections.

Primary Elections Turnout

How does voter turnout in primary elections affect party selection of candidates? Who do candidates need to appeal to in order to win primary elections?

Structural Barriers to Voting
Most voting regulations are decided at the state level. (Thanks, Federalism!) Think about how each of these differences impact voter turnout.

• Voter Registration
• Automatic vs. Citizen-initiated
• Same day vs. 30 days prior
• Voter ID laws
• Early voting
• Online voting?
• Mail-in voting
• Convicted felons

Questions to Consider:

1. How does the voter turnout rate in the US compare to other countries?

2. What are some reasons for this discrepancy?

3. Should voter registration be automatic?

4. Should the US adopt compulsory voting?

Washington Post: Proof that the US Voter Turnout Rate is Embarrassing

Here's a chart from the Pew Research Center's article, US Voter Turnout Trails Most Developed Countries.

Review Videos:

5.2 Models of Voting Behavior

Announcements:
Quiz Tomorrow over Expansion of Voting Rights and Models of Voting Behavior (10pts)

READING: 162-189 in Edwards

Unit Five Identification Terms

Today's Essential Question: On what basis do voters decide how they will cast their ballot? 

Learning Standards:

MPA-3.B: Describe different models of voting behavior.

MPA-3.B.1: Examples of political models explaining voting behavior include:

• Rational-choice voting–Voting based on what is perceived to be in the citizen’s individual interest
• Retrospective voting–Voting to decide whether the party or candidate in power should be re-elected based on the recent past
• Prospective voting–Voting based on predictions of how a party or candidate will perform in the future
• Party-line voting–Supporting a party by voting for candidates from one political party for all public offices across the ballot

Models of Voting Behavior
When citizens cast their ballot, what are the main factors that have influenced their choice? Why did people vote for Donald Trump while others voted for Hillary Clinton? Political scientists often study voting behavior trying to determine the motivation of voters and causes of the electoral outcome. Today, we will look at some of the theories of voting behavior. The four main theories are:

• Rational-choice voting–Voting based on what is perceived to be in the citizen’s individual interest
• Retrospective voting–Voting to decide whether the party or candidate in power should be re-elected based on the recent past
• Prospective voting–Voting based on predictions of how a party or candidate will perform in the future
• Party-line voting–Supporting a party by voting for candidates from one political party for all public offices across the ballot

Task #1. Look at each of the following pictures and discuss in your group what model of voting behavior it best represents.

Task #2: Go to this USA Today interactive on why people voted for Trump. Read (or listen) to some of their reasons. See if you can identify any prospective, retrospective, party-line, or rational choice voter answers.

Are there any other factors that voters use when determining who or what to vote for?

Review Videos:

5.1 Expansion of the Electorate

Announcements:

President Trump's legal team wrapped up their defense yesterday. Here are a few of the highlights:

READING: 243-279 in Edwards

Unit Five Identification Terms

Today's Essential Question: How has the right to vote (suffrage) expanded in the United States?

Learning Standards:

MPA-3.A: Describe the voting rights protections in the Constitution and in legislation.
MPA-3.A.1: Legal protections found in federal legislation and the Fifteenth, Seventeenth,
Nineteenth, Twenty-Fourth, and Twenty-Sixth Amendments relate to the expansion of
opportunities for political participation.

Expanding Voting Rights

Questions to Consider:
1. What percentage of the American public could vote in 1790? 
2. How has the right to vote expanded over time? 

Task #1:

Despite claims of being a democracy, very few people could vote in the early days of the United States. Click this LINK to see how the right to vote has gradually expanded over the past 225 years. If the linked website is blocked, use the power of Google to look up the terms.  In your notes, define and explain how each of the following impacted (both positively and negatively) voting rights:

• 15th Amendment
• poll taxes
• literacy tests
• grandfather clause
• 17th Amendment
• 19th Amendment
• white primaries
• 23rd Amendment
• 24th Amendment
• 1965 Voting Rights Act
• 26th Amendment
• Motor Voter Act

Which of the above do you think was the most significant in impacting voting rights and elections? Explain your answer.



Videos for Review:

How Does Public Opinion Shape Public Policy?

Announcements:

Unit Four Exam Tuesday!!!

EIP Blog: Scroll down to the Smore for EIP application link and recommendation forms.

Impeachment: The third-ever impeachment trial of a president began yesterday afternoon with debate over the rules of the impeachment trial. Here's a quick recap:

READING: 162-189 in Edwards

UNIT Four Identification Terms 

Today's Essential Question: What influence does public opinion have on public policy?

Learning Standards:

MPA-2.A: Describe the elements of a scientific poll.

MPA-2.B: Explain the quality and credibility of claims based on public opinion data.

MPA-2.A.1: Public opinion data that can impact elections and policy debates is affected by such scientific polling types and methods as:

• Type of poll (opinion polls, benchmark or tracking polls, entrance and exit polls) 
• Sampling techniques, identification of respondents, mass survey or focus group, sampling error 
• Type and format of questions

MPA-2.B.1: The relationship between scientific polling and elections and policy debates is affected by the:

• Importance of public opinion as a source of political influence in a given election or policy debate 
• Reliability and veracity of public opinion data

Public Opinion and Public Policy

Task #1: Questions to consider:

1. Which branch should be most responsive to public opinion--legislative, executive, or judicial? Why? Which one should be least responsive to public opinion?

2. Which branch is most responsible for shaping public opinion? How is this branch able to do so?

3. Which branch is most likely to be limited by public opinion? Why?

4. As a member of Congress, should you vote according to what your constituents want (delegate model of representation) or what you personally believe is best (trustee model)?

5. Compare the approval ratings of Congress and the President. How do these approval ratings impact their ability to govern? How do their ratings compare to historical trends?

6. Look at the chart below. What events impacted Bush's approval ratings? How do approval ratings impact his ability to govern?

7. Based on the data below, what action, if any, should Congress take on gun control? Do you believe they will? Why or why not?

8. Are polls "self-fulfilling prophecies"? What impact do polls have on shaping public opinion itself? Read this article on How Polls Influence Behavior.

9. What is the difference between benchmark polls, tracking polls, and exit polls?

Task #2: Read the two articles below on the effects of public opinion on the Supreme Court and the Presidency.

A) Public Opinion, the Court, and Justice Kennedy

B) The Limits on Presidential Leadership

Review Videos:

HB 1508: Grassroots Lobbying

HB 1508: Grassroots Lobbying

Last week, we heard from representatives from the College Board about HB 1508 and how they will provide support for our initiative. Specifically, Kevin McHenry will be in contact with various lawmakers and other government officials to talk directly about the benefits of the bill. Our task will be to provide grassroots support, or support from the bottom up through letters, phone calls, emails, etc.

We will reach out to high schools across the state, enlisting their help and support in passing HB 1508. Each student in APGOV (both at North and LHS) will be assigned two Missouri high schools that they will be responsible for contacting and trying to get their pledge of support. The more students, teachers, administrators, and parents across the state who share their support for our bill, the better our chances. If you have a connection (i.e. family member teaches there, you used to go to school there, etc) to another high school somewhere across the state, please fill out this form.

Today, we will draft a sample letter that you will use to mail/email to your assigned schools. Our goal is to have a final draft of a sample letter completed this week with students mailing/emailing school officials next week.

The basic outline of our letter should look something like this:
I. Introduction of yourself
II. Background of HB 1508
III. Solicitation of support
IV. Talking points
V. Encouragement of spreading the message
VI.Closure

You will be working in groups to draft your letter and then we will compare them, using the best parts from each to come up with a final version. In your groups, share the document with all of your group members and with me. Title your document based on your hour number and group letter-Lobbying Letter. For example, if you are in 3rd hour, group E, your document title would be
3E-Lobbying Letter.

Public Opinion Polls

Announcements:

TeachKC Survey: 5th hour please take during study session.

Enrollment for next year presentations:

READING: 162-189 in Edwards

UNIT Four Identification Terms 

Today's Essential Question: How is a valid public opinion poll conducted?

Learning Standards:

MPA-2.A: Describe the elements of a scientific poll.

MPA-2.B: Explain the quality and credibility of claims based on public opinion data.

MPA-2.A.1: Public opinion data that can impact elections and policy debates is affected by such scientific polling types and methods as:

• Type of poll (opinion polls, benchmark or tracking polls, entrance and exit polls) 
• Sampling techniques, identification of respondents, mass survey or focus group, sampling error 
• Type and format of questions

MPA-2.B.1: The relationship between scientific polling and elections and policy debates is affected by the:

• Importance of public opinion as a source of political influence in a given election or policy debate 
• Reliability and veracity of public opinion data

________________________________________________________________________________

Public Opinion Polls
Can a survey of 1000 people accurately reflect the views of a country with over 300 million people? Why or why not? Discuss with your neighbor what you think.

Public opinion is one way the people are linked to our elected officials. Government policy makers are supposed to represent the will of the people and the use of public opinion polls is one way that they can gauge citizens' views and preferences for different policy outcomes. But in a country as large as the United States, how can these polls accurately reflect what the people really want?

Task #1: First, read this article on How Polls are Conducted by the Gallup Organization, one of the largest and most famous polling companies in the U.S.

Task #2: Next, go through this presentation on what makes a poll valid.







Task #3:

Polling Validity

Based on the information provided, determine whether the poll is valid. Mark V for valid, I for invalid. If the poll is invalid, explain what makes it invalid. You can just write your answers in your notes.

_______1. A random telephone survey of 1,152 people was conducted. They were asked, “Do you support or oppose the US war involvement in Afghanistan?” The answer choices were support or oppose.

_______2. A survey of 1,229 people exiting Worlds of Fun was conducted. They were asked, “Do you approve or disapprove of how President Obama is handling the economy?” The answer choices were approve or disapprove.

______3. A random telephone survey of 452 people was conducted. They were asked, “How likely are you to vote in the primary election?” The answer choices were very likely, likely, unlikely, not very likely.

_______4. A random telephone survey of 989 people was conducted. They were asked, “Do you approve or disapprove of the legalization of marijuana for medicinal purposes?” The answer choices were: approve, disapprove, no opinion

_______5. A random telephone survey of 1072 people was conducted.  They were asked, “What should be done to improve the economy?”

_______6. A random telephone survey of 1,266 people was conducted.  They were asked, “If the election were held today, who would you vote for?” The answer choices were: Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Tulsi Gabbard, Tom Steyer, Michael Bloomberg, or Amy Klobuchar.

_______7. A random telephone survey of 1,319 people was conducted. They were asked, “Don’t you agree that teachers in the United States are underpaid?” The answer choices were: Agree, Disagree, No Opinion

_______8. A random telephone survey of 1,285 high school students was conducted. They were asked, “Do you favor lowering the drinking age to 18?” The answer choices were: Strongly favor, Favor, No Opinion, Oppose, Strongly Oppose

_______9. A random telephone survey of 1470 people was conducted. They were asked, “Do you support the legalization of same sex marriage?” The answer choices were: Strongly support, Support, No Opinion, Oppose, Strongly Oppose.

_______10. An online poll asked people if the death penalty should be repealed. There were 2,385 responses. The answer choices were: Repeal the death penalty, Keep the death penalty

Task #4:

Go to the website, http://www.pollingreport.com/, a collection of public opinion polls on a variety of topics. Look at some of the public opinion polls for at least two different topics/issues.

Record your findings (in your notes) for each of the following:

1. Name of organization conducting the poll

2. Date poll was conducted

3. Sample size (n=??)

4. Margin of error (MOE)

5. Specific question

6. Results

7. Evaluate the results. Any interesting or surprising findings?

Some Major Polling Organizations:

• Gallup
• Pew Research Center
• Rasmussen Reports
• NY Times Polls & Public Opinion Page

Review Videos

Political Socialization

Announcements:

READING: 162-189 in Edwards

UNIT Four Identification Terms 

Today's Essential Question: What factors influence the acquisition of political beliefs and ideology?

Learning Standards:

MPA-1.B: Explain how cultural factors influence political attitudes and socialization.

MPA-1.B.1: Family, schools, peers, media, and social environments (including civic and religious organizations) contribute to the development of an individual’s political attitudes and values through the process of political socialization.

MPA-1.B.2: As a result of globalization, U.S. political culture has both influenced and been influenced by the values of other countries.

MPA-1.B.3: Generational and lifecycle effects also contribute to the political socialization that influences an individual’s political attitudes.

MPA-1.B.4: The relative importance of major political events to the development of individual political attitudes is an example of political socialization.

Political Socialization

How did you become liberal or conservative? What factors, life experiences, or other influences helped shape your political beliefs? Political socialization is the process of acquiring and developing your political ideology.

There are many factors that help determine your political beliefs. These agents of political socialization include:

1. Family---The aggregate student results and the results from Parent Pew Survey . Similarities? Differences? Surprises?

2. Education--liberalizing effect of college? Textbooks?

3. Peers

4. Media--echo chamber?

5. Religion

6. Age/generational effects--what effect might 9/11 have on someone's ideology? The recession of 2009?

Based on each of the following charts, what conclusion can you make?

Review Videos